The World Bank projects that yields for olives, which accounted for 40 percent of total agricultural exports in 2019, could drop by as much as 69 percent by 2050. "Agricultural production is expected to drop by between 29.1 percent and 33.1 percent relative to projections under a scenario of no climatic stress," reads a WB Fall 2023 Economic Monitor of Tunisia published Monday. "This will have disproportionate impacts on the rural poor who have less resources to cope with climate impacts. These losses would translate into a reduction in real GDP by between 4.1 and 4.6 percent," reads the report published under the title "Migration amid a Challenging Economic Context." "A large portion of these losses could materialise by 2030, when the economy is predicted to be between 2.0 and 2.7 smaller than it would otherwise be without the dry conditions induced by climate change. This is the equivalent between TD 2.7 billion and TD 3.8 billion (US$0.9 billion and US$1.3 billion) per year. Recent analysis of the World Bank explores the relationship between Tunisia's development goals and climate change, in terms of both risks and opportunities. The analysis finds that major agriculture systems in Tunisia (olive, oasis, cereal, and livestock) are among the most vulnerable to climate change and water availability is a major concern. By 2050, overall water resources per person per year could decrease by up to 66 percent (from 366 m³ to 122 m³). Under the current trends in water demand, the reductions in water supply are projected to result in 28 percent of the demand being unmet by 2050 in the business as usual scenario. "The decline in water quantity would be accompanied by a decline in water quality and an increasing incidence of water-borne diseases, with disproportionate impacts for the poor," the WB said. The economic and social impacts of future water shortages are going to be very significant. WB recommendations include managing water demand, using alternative groundwater storage techniques and promoting the use of nature-bases solutions, especially those that support the recharge of groundwater reservoirs by restoring forests, wetlands, and oases - which can help mitigate the anticipated decline in surface water. Additional recommendations include expanding non-conventional water sources (for example, by investing in the reuse of treated wastewater and desaliniation) which can complement conventional water sources. This in addition to improving irrigation efficiency, water-use productivity and increasing uptake of climate-smart practices to help reduce water demand from the agricultural sector, which consumes around three quarter of Tunisia's water. Accompanying institutional reforms under the responsibility of the contracting authority, also to improve financial performance, soft incentives to reduce food and water waste along the value-chain and establishing a water monitoring and early-warning system would further enhance water management.

Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse